Complex data reveals clear goals for building electrification

The report, Roadmap to Fossil Free Homes, showcases the powerful role of analyzing data with a climate-centric lens to shape sustainable urban policies. 

Harnessing complex data

At Stand.earth Research Group (SRG) we often leverage a diverse array of data sources in our research. In this example, we illustrate the climate impact of transitioning to all-electric new residential buildings. The data we used includes energy consumption, new building permits, housing surveys, national emissions inventories, polling on climate knowledge, building electrification policies – and many others! By integrating all these sources and analyzing trends, we provide a comprehensive ranking of regions by the potential benefits of building electrification. In this way, we yield rich insights for climate campaigning that highlight the strategic importance of local actions. 

Our first step was to combine International Energy Conservation Code Climate Zones  with the US Government Census Building Permits Survey We did so at the county level for over 3,000 counties across 50 states. Then, we matched these with the U.S. Energy Information Administration Residential Energy Consumption Survey based on climate zone, division, unit size, and type. This new dataset gave us an estimate of average gas per household type for 2020 by US county. To assess how much gas would be used by an average new build, we used data from the US Government Census American Housing Survey to estimate the percentage of new single and multi units that were using gas by the year of completion. 

We combined this complex dataset with the county level dataset on building permits surveys to estimate gas usage by volume for projected new builds out to 2030 by unit type, state, and climate zone. Next, we applied a US EPA GHG conversion factor (1 CcF gas = approximately 5.5 kg CO2) to estimate county-level emissions and to estimate the emissions from new builds using gas from 2023-2030. 

Getting great results

We discovered through this analysis that nationwide, building electrification policies targeting new buildings could eliminate nearly 140 million metric tons of CO2 by 2030. That’s like keeping over 320 million barrels of oil in the ground!

Our analysis also highlights the significant impact of local policies. We identified that a relatively small number of policies in specific regions would have an outsized positive impact on emission reductions. Just twelve metropolitan areas account for over 30% of estimated cumulative CO2 emissions. As well, just 14 states contain over 70% of projected emissions from new housing stock between 2023 to 2030. We calculated this by identifying metropolitan areas using population figures for cities and counties as an approximation for emissions for projected new builds.  We used this data to rank top areas where building electrification policies would have the largest impact. 

Creating effective strategies

 

Finally, this county and metropolitan-level data was matched with states that don’t have pre-emption policies in place. This step allowed us to identify top places for the largest positive climate impact. We concluded that more than half (52%) of gas emissions from residential buildings constructed between 2023 and 2030 could be eliminated by passing policies in just 63 metropolitan areas and their surrounding counties. 

By pulling from a wide range of sources and presenting the findings in a clear and actionable manner, we highlight the significant environmental and health benefits of building electrification. We provide a roadmap for achieving these goals by targeting top regions. Findings like these really highlight how targeted actions can have huge positive impacts for the climate. This research underscores the effectiveness of using accurate and comprehensive data to inform policy decisions. 

– Dr. Devyani Singh, Investigative Researcher, Stand.earth Research Group